The Wisdom of the Illiterati


	the fix is in As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, things have been moving much faster this year on the Hot 100 than in years past. That, however, may change, because last week Billboard revamped the method they use to formulate the chart. The magazine’s main bragging point about the new system is that they’ve finally added internet streaming sites—only Yahoo and AOL for now, but more will join up as soon as Billboard convinces them to compile weekly instead of monthly stats. Right now, streams don’t have much effect on the chart, making up only about 5% of a record’s point total (I’ll explain that whole business in a minute), but as more streams are added, that effect will increase, and could result in some major changes to the chart. If MySpace streams were counted, for instance, Sean Kingston would have been number one a month ago. For the time being, however, the truly important change is the re-emphasis on radio play as a measure of popularity. This has been done in two ways. First, the number of radio stations monitored and/or included in the chart tabulations has been increased. At the same time, they’ve reduced the effect of digital sales on the chart by changing the number by which they divide the sales totals. The formula works something like this: All sales of a record, physical and digital, are added up and divided by ten (under the old system it was five), radio audience impressions are divided by 10,000, and the number of streams is divided by 500 (how they determine the number of radio impressions is a whole other story, but let’s just say it’s the total estimated audience of a radio station when a particular record is played; these numbers can be huge: a couple of weeks ago “Umbrella” scored nearly 65 million audience impressions). The totals for the three categories are added together, and the final score determines a records chart ranking. In other words: (Total Sales/10) + (Radio Impressions/10,000) + (Digital Streams/500) = Total score. (This, I should point out, is the formula for the Hot 100 only. The Pop 100 formula is different—it gives greater weight to sales. The airplay and sales charts, of course, use straight Neilson rating and Soundscan numbers with no fooling around.) According to Billboard, this formula renders a chart in which radio provides around 55% of the total score, sales about 40%, and streams the remaining 5%. Under the old system, when sales were divided by five, the percentages for sales and radio were essentially reversed, with sales having the higher impact. The overall effect of this change is exactly what radio stations and record companies were hoping for, a chart that makes radio play seem more important than actual sales, and that keeps records on the charts longer, enabling record companies to milk more profits out of a single release and, they hope, sell more albums as well. In other words, a return to a universe much like the one that existed before Billboard added digital sales to their formula at the beginning of 2005. The problem is that the resulting chart is based partly on a tautology (or a corporate circle jerk, depending on how you’re feeling about record labels and radio stations at the time). Radio stations can claim that they play the same songs over and over, and record companies can justify promoting the same records for months at a time, because those records are still high on the charts, when it is the constant play of particular records by those same stations that makes those records score so high in the charts in the first place (we'll ignore, for the moment, the shady business of a how a record gets added to a station's playlist to begin with). Sales of a record will now have to take a much deeper plunge before they have an effect on its chart placing. It also means that a record that doesn’t get a lot of airplay but is selling well will find itself shut out of the top ten, despite its popularity. The best example of this is Aly & AJ’s “Potential Breakup Song”, which dropped nearly 20 places (from 17 to 36) on the first chart compiled under the new system, despite being in the top ten on the digital sales chart. Top Forty radio shuns Disney associated acts, claiming their audiences prefer more “mature” artists. So for the time being, if you want to hear people act like teenagers on the radio, you’ll need to settle for 20-somethings like Avril Lavigne or 30-somethings like Gwen Stefani. Real teenagers needn’t apply (unless, of course, they act older, like Chris Brown or Rihanna). Aly & AJ’s drop is the only real change on the chart attributable to the new rules—unless, of course, you count the fact that, except for the arrival of Sean Kingston, the chart changed barely at all this week. The most likely result of the change in formula, at least until more streams are added to the count, is a chart that will move more slowly than it has over the last year or so, and certainly slower than the last six months. A return to the glacial pace of 2003 and 2004, however, seems unlikely. Digital sales continue to grow at an incredible pace, and in another year Billboard may find themselves having to raise that divisor again, not to mention the one for streams, in order to keep radio happy. In the meantime, the strangely dissonant split between what radio wants, or is paid, to play, and what their listeners actually want to hear, will continue, and perhaps even widen. \| [Archives] Search entries:		top ten 1966 top ten OTHER OCCASIONAL RAMBLINGS Hail Blogoslavia! ~~100~~ 45 or so things about JSM The Saga of the Lone Biscuit OTHER BLOGS Blogroll Me

the fix is in

As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, things have been moving much faster this year on the Hot 100 than in years past. That, however, may change, because last week Billboard revamped the method they use to formulate the chart. The magazine’s main bragging point about the new system is that they’ve finally added internet streaming sites—only Yahoo and AOL for now, but more will join up as soon as Billboard convinces them to compile weekly instead of monthly stats. Right now, streams don’t have much effect on the chart, making up only about 5% of a record’s point total (I’ll explain that whole business in a minute), but as more streams are added, that effect will increase, and could result in some major changes to the chart. If MySpace streams were counted, for instance, Sean Kingston would have been number one a month ago.

For the time being, however, the truly important change is the re-emphasis on radio play as a measure of popularity. This has been done in two ways. First, the number of radio stations monitored and/or included in the chart tabulations has been increased. At the same time, they’ve reduced the effect of digital sales on the chart by changing the number by which they divide the sales totals.

The formula works something like this: All sales of a record, physical and digital, are added up and divided by ten (under the old system it was five), radio audience impressions are divided by 10,000, and the number of streams is divided by 500 (how they determine the number of radio impressions is a whole other story, but let’s just say it’s the total estimated audience of a radio station when a particular record is played; these numbers can be huge: a couple of weeks ago “Umbrella” scored nearly 65 million audience impressions). The totals for the three categories are added together, and the final score determines a records chart ranking. In other words:

(Total Sales/10) + (Radio Impressions/10,000) + (Digital Streams/500) = Total score.

(This, I should point out, is the formula for the Hot 100 only. The Pop 100 formula is different—it gives greater weight to sales. The airplay and sales charts, of course, use straight Neilson rating and Soundscan numbers with no fooling around.)

According to Billboard, this formula renders a chart in which radio provides around 55% of the total score, sales about 40%, and streams the remaining 5%. Under the old system, when sales were divided by five, the percentages for sales and radio were essentially reversed, with sales having the higher impact.

The overall effect of this change is exactly what radio stations and record companies were hoping for, a chart that makes radio play seem more important than actual sales, and that keeps records on the charts longer, enabling record companies to milk more profits out of a single release and, they hope, sell more albums as well. In other words, a return to a universe much like the one that existed before Billboard added digital sales to their formula at the beginning of 2005.

The problem is that the resulting chart is based partly on a tautology (or a corporate circle jerk, depending on how you’re feeling about record labels and radio stations at the time). Radio stations can claim that they play the same songs over and over, and record companies can justify promoting the same records for months at a time, because those records are still high on the charts, when it is the constant play of particular records by those same stations that makes those records score so high in the charts in the first place (we'll ignore, for the moment, the shady business of a how a record gets added to a station's playlist to begin with). Sales of a record will now have to take a much deeper plunge before they have an effect on its chart placing. It also means that a record that doesn’t get a lot of airplay but is selling well will find itself shut out of the top ten, despite its popularity.

The best example of this is Aly & AJ’s “Potential Breakup Song”, which dropped nearly 20 places (from 17 to 36) on the first chart compiled under the new system, despite being in the top ten on the digital sales chart. Top Forty radio shuns Disney associated acts, claiming their audiences prefer more “mature” artists. So for the time being, if you want to hear people act like teenagers on the radio, you’ll need to settle for 20-somethings like Avril Lavigne or 30-somethings like Gwen Stefani. Real teenagers needn’t apply (unless, of course, they act older, like Chris Brown or Rihanna).

Aly & AJ’s drop is the only real change on the chart attributable to the new rules—unless, of course, you count the fact that, except for the arrival of Sean Kingston, the chart changed barely at all this week. The most likely result of the change in formula, at least until more streams are added to the count, is a chart that will move more slowly than it has over the last year or so, and certainly slower than the last six months. A return to the glacial pace of 2003 and 2004, however, seems unlikely. Digital sales continue to grow at an incredible pace, and in another year Billboard may find themselves having to raise that divisor again, not to mention the one for streams, in order to keep radio happy. In the meantime, the strangely dissonant split between what radio wants, or is paid, to play, and what their listeners actually want to hear, will continue, and perhaps even widen.