top ten update

Uh-oh. It's been less than a year, but it looks like it might be time for Billboard to change its formula for tabulating the Hot 100 again. For the second week in a row, digital sales have propelled Disney-identified teen and tween pop into the top ten, and there's more to come. The Jonas Brothers plan to release a new song to iTunes every two weeks until their album comes out, and no doubt there'll be another Miley Cyrus single in the works soon, as well. At the same time, Rihanna's "Disturbia", a track off the special edition of Good Girl Gone Bad, debuted at 18 last week and, if it hadn't been for Disney, would be in the top ten right now, despite the lack of significant airplay (it's not even on the Hot 100 Airplay chart). Billboard, which always tries to keep radio happy, changed their formula last year, essentially halving the effect of sales on the chart (I do my best to explain it here). Since then, according to numbers released this week, digital track sales have increased by 30%, and the Hot 100 is starting to bounce around in much the same way as it did last year.

Me, I think this is great news. But radio programmers hate it because it makes the charts too volatile, and hence too difficult to adjust to effectively as far as programming is concerned. Which is another way of saying they would prefer to play the same records for months on end, and have greater control over what becomes a hit and what doesn't, because the more power they have, the more money they'll make. Ultimately, I think this is going to bite them, hard, because the audience they're resisting now is the one that will rule the ground in a few years, and will essentially have already abandoned terrestrial radio in favor of whatever medium plays what they actually want to hear. At the moment, radio is too powerful for Billboard to abandon, but the writing is on the wall, and it might be a good idea for the magazine to start standing up to the radio conglomerates now. The industry is rapidly moving past them, and it's time for Billboard to more actively acknowledge that.

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