The Illiterate

No new tracks in the top ten again this week, which gives me the opportunity to revisit an earlier post. Back near the beginning of the year, I posted about the cyclical nature of the charts, and how it appeared we were in what might be described as a new artist slough. That is, the percentage of new artists among all Hot 100 entrants had been at a low ebb the last two or three years, and that trend looked to continue. It was too early in the year, though, to make predictions. Now, however, more than a third of the way through the year, it’s fair to say that the slough continues. As of this week, slightly more than 16.4% of the new records in the Hot 100 are by new artists (which I define simply as any featured artist who hasn’t been in the Hot 100 before, though they may have appeared on other charts). That puts the year so far two points behind last year and more in line with 2007, which finished at 16.7%. It’s also more than 8 points below the Hot 100 average of 24.6%.

Things don’t get much lower than this, at least not in the Hot 100. Only twice before has the new artist percentage dropped below 17, and one of those years was 2007. Why it should drop so low now is anyone’s guess, though certainly the economy, combined with the ridiculous amount of musical information available now–when faced with too many choices, people retreat to the known–makes a difference. But there is also a cyclical effect which I’m hoping to suss out in greater detail later (if I ever find the time to think for more than fifteen minutes at a stretch). I suspect, though, that this is the bottom, and that things will improve–slowly, slowly–in the next few years until the charts reach their next high point in a little less than a decade. Here’s hoping all those overly-familiar artists put out some decent music in the meantime.