Posts Tagged ‘Jay Frank’

Market Forces

Thursday, July 19th, 2012

While Simon Reynolds and Maura Johnston have both offered elegant, convincing theories as to why catalog sales have been beating current product over the last few months, Jay Frank at FutureHit.DNA offers a simpler, market-driven solution.

[Catalolg sales] have been going up for the last 2 years largely due to the return of the bins in the front of Wal-Mart and Best Buy stores selling older titles for $4.99. The prominent positioning at retail is now going to cheap, older titles thereby driving up their sales. Both Wal-Mart and Best Buy have increasingly placed their new music releases in harder to find places. My local Best Buy has the top sellers positioned down a regular aisle facing the rear of the store blocked by an aisle of hair dryers. Wal-Mart has been moving their CD racks to the mid-point of the media sections. You’d be hard pressed to get sales if it’s not in a visible place by which to sell the product.

As Frank also observes, newer music tends to be higher priced, as well. Few stores offer discounts for first week sales anymore (since they can’t compete with Amazon, anyway, why bother?). Reynolds and Johnston make good points, but I have a feeling Frank is closer to the reality of the situation. Convenience and price matter, and though people may be leaning toward the comfortable and familiar these days, as Johnston suggests (though when did they ever not lean that way?), when you put a bargain price on what people want most, anyway, it makes a big difference.

Finally, a Sane Article On File Trading

Thursday, June 21st, 2012

I was planning on my own post on the Emily White/David Lowery/Everybody Else In the World dust-up, but Jay Frank at FutureHitDNA.com, in an essay reprinted by Billboard, has done the job far better than I could have, and provides some real numbers to back his conclusions up.

The most important points (to me, at least):

…there are too many artists competing for shrinking dollars, largely due to the shift from albums to singles. Despite the economic number that David Lowery quoted of the number of professional musicians falling by 25%, if you took “album releases” as an indicator, it seems like the number of pros has increased. In a decade, we’ve gone from about 30,000 albums being released to over 77,000 last year. And that’s just albums going thru legit channels. The problem…is that 94% of those releases sold less than 1,000 units. Indicators that I have examined showed those low sales aren’t because of people stealing them. They come from too many releases causing most people to not even realize they are out.

The first time I saw Lowery’s estimate of the number of professional musicians failing, I thought, “Thank God. It’s time to clear out the deadwood.” That’s a callous way to put it, but there’s is a real difference between the number of people who are making records and the number of people who should be making records.

Having a download on a hard drive…single or album, purchased or stolen…this is the 2012 equivalent of “buying a CD with one good song on it”. People are smart and will legally stream something before any sort of ownership decision solely because they don’t want their hard drive cluttered with music they don’t like.

This is the paradigm I lean towards more and more myself: listening to new records on Spotify and then buying the stuff that has lasting value. By buying I mean physical copies, at least for albums, vinyl if it’s available and not overpriced (which it often is).

(As an aside, I also want to note that I buy every record I review in the Hot 100 Roundup; I do download those rare records that have made the chart based on radio play and aren’t yet commercially available, but I always make a point of buying a copy as soon as they’re released. Piracy may not be destroying the music industry, but it’s still piracy.)